| First In The Nation | |||||||||||||||
| An Iowan's Take On Presidental Politics | |||||||||||||||
| January 15, 2005 | |||||||||||||||
| 1,389 Days To Go | |||||||||||||||
| Of Declining Ratings and Dark Horses | |||||||||||||||
| President George W. Bush will begin his second term with the lowest job approval rating of any president in the polling age. The | |||||||||||||||
| last five incument presidents enjoyed ratings near or exceeding 60% compared to Bush's current 50% rating. Mr. Bush has gained | |||||||||||||||
| some additional public support regarding his handling of the economy, with his right direction/wrong direction number increasing | |||||||||||||||
| from 41% to 45% over the past month. Neither have the last several weeks been kind to Rudy Guliani. His "lead" for the 2008 | |||||||||||||||
| GOP nomination declined dramatically . . . likely a derivative of the Bernard Kerick affair. On the Democratic side, Senator Hillary | |||||||||||||||
| Clinton's popularity for her party's nomination increased. Guliani's lead over Clinton in the mythical presidental match-up | |||||||||||||||
| declined from 11 points to two. Two names to watch as we look to 2008 . . . Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina for the | |||||||||||||||
| Republicans and Senator Russ Feingold of Wisconsin for the Dems. Graham is a likeable southern gentleman positioned | |||||||||||||||
| "correctly" on most issues as the GOP faithful expect. He also has a bit of a maverick streak, most notably speaking out on the | |||||||||||||||
| conduct of the war in Iraq. Feingold could be the Howard Dean candidate the next go around but with considerably more campaign | |||||||||||||||
| discipline. He's also a bit of a party maverick and has shown the ability to gain support from rural voters, a must for the next | |||||||||||||||
| national Democratic candidate. Of course, I would be remiss not to mention Iowa's own Governor Thomas Vilsack. He's a two | |||||||||||||||
| term Dem governor from a "purple" state who will not be running for a third term. It should not be lost on Democrats that its last two | |||||||||||||||
| successful candidates for president were governors from rural states. See you next month. | |||||||||||||||
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| Questions, comments? Contact firstinnation@hotmail.com | |||||||||||||||
| George W. Bush By The Numbers | |||||||||||||||
| Job Approval | Favorable | Right Direction In Regard To . . . | |||||||||||||
| Rating | Rating | USA | Economy | Iraq | |||||||||||
| January 2005 | 50% | 53% | 44% | 45% | 43% | ||||||||||
| December 2004 | 52% | 55% | 46% | 41% | 42% | ||||||||||
| One Number | |||||||||||||||
| 45% | |||||||||||||||
| The percentage of Americans who | |||||||||||||||
| believe Social Security will be | |||||||||||||||
| able to pay them a benefit upon | |||||||||||||||
| retirement. | |||||||||||||||
| Looking Towards 2008 | |||||||||||||||
| The Republicans | |||||||||||||||
| Guliani | McCain | Jeb Bush | Frist | Pataki | Santorum | Romney | Other | Unsure | |||||||
| January 2005 | 29% | 25% | 7% | 7% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 8% | 17% | ||||||
| December 2004 | 30% | 18% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 40% | ||||||
| The Democrats | |||||||||||||||
| Clinton | Kerry | Edwards | Clark | Richardson | Bayh | Feingold | Other | Unsure | |||||||
| January 2005 | 33% | 19% | 15% | 11% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 7% | 9% | ||||||
| December 2004 | 27% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 10% | 35% | ||||||
| The Horserace | |||||||||||||||
| A head-to-head match-up between the current "leaders" for the Republican and Democratic nominations | |||||||||||||||
| January 2005 | Guliani 45% Clinton 43% Undecided/Other 9% | ||||||||||||||
| December 2004 | Guliani 49% Clinton 38% Undecided/Other 13% | ||||||||||||||
| A Comment On Methodology: The data appearing on this page is based on an analyis of polling data available in the public domain. In most instances, multiple polls are | |||||||||||||||
| utililized. Some polls receive more weighting than others based on time frames and my experience with their general reliability. | |||||||||||||||